Development and Results of a Northern Sea Route Transit Model
Table 1. Reconnaissance study team members
The need for a transit model
International interest
Figure 1. The various Northern Sea Route options
THE TRANSIT MODEL
Figure 2. Selection of ice thickness values from a hypothetical probability density function (PDF) using Monte Carlo methods
General description and assumptions
Random number generator
Mesh description
Table 4. Listing of transit model nodes
Months selected for simulation
Figure 6. Russian Noril'sk-class SA-15 multipurpose icebreaking cargo ship
Figure 6. Continued - CR96_050022
Ships selected for simulation-continue
Figure 7. Finish Lunni-class liquid bulk carrier
Figure 7. Continued - CR96_050025
Figure 8. Russian Mikhail Strekalovsky-class dry bulk carrier
Figure 9. Russian Arktika-class icebreaker upon meeting the USCGS Polar Sea and the CCGS Louis St.-Laurent near the North Pole in August of 1994
Logic summary
Input variables: Meteorological
Snowstorms
Input variables: Oceanographic
Ice concentration
Input variables: Costs
Table 7. Estimated ownership and operating costs for an NSR tanker
Table 8. Estimated ownership and operating costs for an NSR dry bulk ship
Miscellaneous passage fees
Detailed simulation logic
Figure 12. Relationship between wind direction, ship direction, and seas
Adjust speed for visibility and maneuverability factors (step 4)
Running the model
Input files structure
Output files and print options
RESULTS OF SIMULATIONS
Table 15. Sensitivity study of number of voyages
Shipping costs - CR96_050045
Table 17. Tabular results from varying cargo ship rates for Noril'sk multipurpose cargo ship transits
Figure 13. The effect of cargo ship rates on total shipping costs
Figure 14. The effect of icebreaker rates on total shipping costs
Final simulations
Table 20. Final results of Monte Carlo time and cost simulations
Transit cost
Table 21. Estimated ownership and operating costs for a hypothetical double-capacity NSR container ship or general cargo ship
Table 23. Estimated ownership and operating costs for a hypothetical dbl-capacity NSR dry bulk ship
CONCLUSIONS - CR96_050054
CONCLUSIONS-continue - CR96_050055
LITERATURE CITED - CR96_050056
LITERATURE CITED-continue - CR96_050057
LITERATURE CITED-continue - CR96_050058
APPENDIX A: DETAILED NSRSIM01.FOR FLOWCHARTS
APPENDIX A: DETAILED NSRSIM01.FOR FLOWCHARTS-continue - CR96_050060
APPENDIX A: DETAILED NSRSIM01.FOR FLOWCHARTS-continue - CR96_050061
APPENDIX A: DETAILED NSRSIM01.FOR FLOWCHARTS-continue - CR96_050062
APPENDIX A: DETAILED NSRSIM01.FOR FLOWCHARTS-continue - CR96_050063
DETAIL OF SPEED INITIALIZATION ALGORITHM
SPEED INITIALIZATION ALGORITHM
SPEED INITIALIZATION ALGORITHM-continue
APPENDIX B: INPUT FILE FORMATS
Table B.2. Data record format specifications for ice concentration files
Table B.3. Data record format specifications for cost file
Table B.4. Data record format specifications for icingfogsnowstorm files
Table B.5. Data record format specifications for ice pressure files
Table B.6. Data record format specifications for ice thickness files
Table B.7. Data record format specifications for network node files
Partial listing of NDESEW08.DAT
Table B.8. Data record format for permanent current files
Table B.9. Data record format specifications for wave height files
Table B.10. Data record format specifications for ice thickness files
Table B.11. Header record format specification for wind file data records
APPENDIX C: PRINT FILE FORMATS
FOG STATISTICS for EACH LEG
ICING STATISTICS for EACH LEG
SNOWSTORM STATISTICS for EACH LEG
DARKNESS STATISTICS for EACH LEG
ICE STATISTICS for EACH LEG
ESCORT STATISTICS for EACH LEG
TRANSIT STATISTICS for EACH LEG
SUMMARY OF DATA LOGGED FOR TRANSIT 1
SUMMARY OF DATA LOGGED FOR TRANSIT 1-continue
Table C.1. Description of column headings for transit log table printed under output option 2
TABLE OF VALUES USED FOR EACH SEGMENT OF TRANSIT 2
TABLE OF VALUES USED FOR EACH SEGMENT OF TRANSIT 2-continue - CR96_050091
TABLE OF VALUES USED FOR EACH SEGMENT OF TRANSIT 2-continue - CR96_050092
APPENDIX D: NODAL SCHEMES FOR EACH MONTH OF TRANSIT
APPENDIX D: NODAL SCHEMES FOR EACH MONTH OF TRANSIT-continue
APPENDIX E: INFORMATION ABOUT THE NUCLEAR ICEBREAKER
APPENDIX E: INFORMATION ABOUT THE NUCLEAR ICEBREAKER-continue
APPENDIX F: CARGO SHIP AND ICEBREAKER CLASSIFICATION EQUIVALENCIES
APPENDIX G: TRANSLATION OF RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT'S
GENERAL CONDITIONS
GENERAL CONDITIONS-continue
OBLIGATORY CHARGES AND FEES
Lighthouse Charges
Pier Charges
SERVICE CHARGES
Harbor Pilot Charges
Table 3.2. Rates for harbor pilot charges
STC (Ship Traffic Control) Service Charges
Tug Boat Charges During Mooring Operations
Charges for Combined Lighter Carrier Service
Charges for Fire Protection
CHARGES FOR AGENTING AND ADDITIONAL SERVICES RENDERED TO RUSSIAN SHIP OWNERS
Table 4.1. Agent's fee
Report Documentation Page - CR96_050113
CR96_05
Table 1. Reconnaissance study team members
The need for a transit model
International interest
Figure 1. The various Northern Sea Route options
THE TRANSIT MODEL
Figure 2. Selection of ice thickness values from a hypothetical probability density function (PDF) using Monte Carlo methods
General description and assumptions
Random number generator
Mesh description
Table 4. Listing of transit model nodes
Months selected for simulation
Figure 6. Russian Noril'sk-class SA-15 multipurpose icebreaking cargo ship
Figure 6. Continued - CR96_050022
Ships selected for simulation-continue
Figure 7. Finish Lunni-class liquid bulk carrier
Figure 7. Continued - CR96_050025
Figure 8. Russian Mikhail Strekalovsky-class dry bulk carrier
Figure 9. Russian Arktika-class icebreaker upon meeting the USCGS Polar Sea and the CCGS Louis St.-Laurent near the North Pole in August of 1994
Logic summary
Input variables: Meteorological
Snowstorms
Input variables: Oceanographic
Ice concentration
Input variables: Costs
Table 7. Estimated ownership and operating costs for an NSR tanker
Table 8. Estimated ownership and operating costs for an NSR dry bulk ship
Miscellaneous passage fees
Detailed simulation logic
Figure 12. Relationship between wind direction, ship direction, and seas
Adjust speed for visibility and maneuverability factors (step 4)
Running the model
Input files structure
Output files and print options
RESULTS OF SIMULATIONS
Table 15. Sensitivity study of number of voyages
Shipping costs - CR96_050045
Table 17. Tabular results from varying cargo ship rates for Noril'sk multipurpose cargo ship transits
Figure 13. The effect of cargo ship rates on total shipping costs
Figure 14. The effect of icebreaker rates on total shipping costs
Final simulations
Table 20. Final results of Monte Carlo time and cost simulations
Transit cost
Table 21. Estimated ownership and operating costs for a hypothetical double-capacity NSR container ship or general cargo ship
Table 23. Estimated ownership and operating costs for a hypothetical dbl-capacity NSR dry bulk ship
CONCLUSIONS - CR96_050054
CONCLUSIONS-continue - CR96_050055
LITERATURE CITED - CR96_050056
LITERATURE CITED-continue - CR96_050057
LITERATURE CITED-continue - CR96_050058
APPENDIX A: DETAILED NSRSIM01.FOR FLOWCHARTS
APPENDIX A: DETAILED NSRSIM01.FOR FLOWCHARTS-continue - CR96_050060
APPENDIX A: DETAILED NSRSIM01.FOR FLOWCHARTS-continue - CR96_050061
APPENDIX A: DETAILED NSRSIM01.FOR FLOWCHARTS-continue - CR96_050062
APPENDIX A: DETAILED NSRSIM01.FOR FLOWCHARTS-continue - CR96_050063
DETAIL OF SPEED INITIALIZATION ALGORITHM
SPEED INITIALIZATION ALGORITHM
SPEED INITIALIZATION ALGORITHM-continue
APPENDIX B: INPUT FILE FORMATS
Table B.2. Data record format specifications for ice concentration files
Table B.3. Data record format specifications for cost file
Table B.4. Data record format specifications for icingfogsnowstorm files
Table B.5. Data record format specifications for ice pressure files
Table B.6. Data record format specifications for ice thickness files
Table B.7. Data record format specifications for network node files
Partial listing of NDESEW08.DAT
Table B.8. Data record format for permanent current files
Table B.9. Data record format specifications for wave height files
Table B.10. Data record format specifications for ice thickness files
Table B.11. Header record format specification for wind file data records
APPENDIX C: PRINT FILE FORMATS
FOG STATISTICS for EACH LEG
ICING STATISTICS for EACH LEG
SNOWSTORM STATISTICS for EACH LEG
DARKNESS STATISTICS for EACH LEG
ICE STATISTICS for EACH LEG
ESCORT STATISTICS for EACH LEG
TRANSIT STATISTICS for EACH LEG
SUMMARY OF DATA LOGGED FOR TRANSIT 1
SUMMARY OF DATA LOGGED FOR TRANSIT 1-continue
Table C.1. Description of column headings for transit log table printed under output option 2
TABLE OF VALUES USED FOR EACH SEGMENT OF TRANSIT 2
TABLE OF VALUES USED FOR EACH SEGMENT OF TRANSIT 2-continue - CR96_050091
TABLE OF VALUES USED FOR EACH SEGMENT OF TRANSIT 2-continue - CR96_050092
APPENDIX D: NODAL SCHEMES FOR EACH MONTH OF TRANSIT
APPENDIX D: NODAL SCHEMES FOR EACH MONTH OF TRANSIT-continue
APPENDIX E: INFORMATION ABOUT THE NUCLEAR ICEBREAKER
APPENDIX E: INFORMATION ABOUT THE NUCLEAR ICEBREAKER-continue
APPENDIX F: CARGO SHIP AND ICEBREAKER CLASSIFICATION EQUIVALENCIES
APPENDIX G: TRANSLATION OF RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT'S
GENERAL CONDITIONS
GENERAL CONDITIONS-continue
OBLIGATORY CHARGES AND FEES
Lighthouse Charges
Pier Charges
SERVICE CHARGES
Harbor Pilot Charges
Table 3.2. Rates for harbor pilot charges
STC (Ship Traffic Control) Service Charges
Tug Boat Charges During Mooring Operations
Charges for Combined Lighter Carrier Service
Charges for Fire Protection
CHARGES FOR AGENTING AND ADDITIONAL SERVICES RENDERED TO RUSSIAN SHIP OWNERS
Table 4.1. Agent's fee
Report Documentation Page - CR96_050113
CR96_05
