icebreaking technology, and 2) Russian sources in
bitter cold temperatures, ice-choked seas, shallow
the open literature. After introducing ship perfor-
straits, blinding fog, and isolation are routine. The
mance criteria into the model, we were ready to
route extends across or into four seas of the Arctic
generate preliminary travel times. We compared
Basin: the Kara, the Laptev, the East Siberian, and
these values with those derived from the open lit-
the Chukchi. It is the most challenging segment of
erature and then adjusted the performance crite-
the historic Northeast Passage from Europe to the
ria to more closely calculate the known transit
Far East, offering a shorter distance between sea-
times.
ports in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific
We added several other program modules to
relative to the Suez and Panama Canal routes that
simulate environmental factors that we believed
are currently used. Transit distances between North
would have an important effect on ship passage.
Pacific and European ports are 3560% less than
For example, we incorporated a speed reduction
the traditional southerly routes.
algorithm for ice pressure and a seasonally depen-
For approximately 50 years before 1991, the So-
dent darkness algorithm, and devised a maneu-
viet Union devoted significant energy and re-
vering algorithm depending on the ice concentra-
sources to developing a vast marine transportation
tion. We decided not to use Russian historical data
system to help bring the abundant natural re-
on the probability of needing icebreaker escort, in
sources of Russia's isolated northern frontier to its
favor of letting the probability-generated ice con-
more populated manufacturing centers. An intri-
ditions determine when escort was needed. The
cate system of seaports, navigation aids, commu-
February workshop produced our final flow chart
nications systems, icebreaking ships, ice forecast-
and a final list of individual tasks for completing
ing, and piloting expertise was developed despite
the modeling work.
the considerable physical challenges of the Arctic
regions. Today, open-ocean cargo transportation
Scope of this report
routinely occurs four months of the year along the
This report is a detailed description and discus-
entire Eurasian Arctic coastline. Shipping traffic,
sion of our Monte Carlo-based transit model that
both local and transit, plies the entire route from
was formulated in support of the Northern Sea
the beginning of July to the end of October. On the
Route Reconnaissance Study. The model's output
western end of the NSR, regular service from
was used to estimate the time and cost of several
Murmansk across the Barents and Kara Seas and
scenarios of commercial ship transits in order to
up the Yenisey River to Dudinka has been operat-
compare the efficacy of the NSR with the conven-
ing virtually year-round since about 1980.
tional Suez and Panama Canal routes. The model
Numerous routes are possible (Fig. 1), depend-
represents one phase of a larger investigation con-
ing mainly on transient ice conditions. The first is
ducted by the Alaska District of the U.S. Army
the most southerly and conventional coastal route.
Corps of Engineers (USAED 1995).
A second is a midroute from Cape Zhelaniya (the
This report discusses the development of the
northern tip of Novaya Zemlya) to Dikson and
computer model, our assumptions, the model in-
from Novaya Sibir ' Island to the port of Pevek. A
put variables and output capabilities, our simula-
third route, which is shorter for through traffic,
tions and sensitivity studies, and the model re-
stays to the north of Cape Zhelaniya, Cape
sults. A section describes how to run the model
Arkticheski (the northern tip of Severnaya Zemlya),
and what user options are available. The appen-
and the Novosibirskiy Islands. A fourth route, 700
dixes include a program flow chart (App. A), the
nm shorter than the coastal route, is the great circle
formats for and examples of input data files (App.
route by way of the geographic North Pole. This
B), and examples of the various output printing
fourth course is not economically feasible at the
options (App. C).
present time, but it may become viable in the fu-
ture with improved transportation technology.
What is the Northern Sea Route?
The Northern Sea Route, or NSR, is the mod-
International interest
ern-day designation for the Arctic marine route
Using their highly advanced fleet of icebreaking
that extends from the Russian islands of Novaya
ships, the Russians have the experience and tech-
Zemlya to the Bering Strait, which separates the
nological capability to move ships virtually any-
State of Alaska from Russia. It extends a distance
where in the Arctic during the summer months, a
of between 2200 and 2900 nautical miles (nm) along
fact that has been demonstrated by many trips to
Russia's northern coastline, where ecounters with
the North Pole by Russian nuclear-powered ice-
4
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