Development and Results of a
Northern Sea Route Transit Model
NATHAN D. MULHERIN, DUANE T. EPPLER, TATIANA O. PROSHUTINSKY,
ANDREY YU. PROSHUTINSKY, L. DENNIS FARMER, AND ORSON P. SMITH
tified by feasibility studies as having a net benefit,
INTRODUCTION
could then be recommended for Congressional
approval and funding.
About this report
This report details the development and results
of a Monte Carlo-based transit model constructed
Reconnaissance study
for a Northern Sea Route reconnaissance study.
participants and products
The model was commissioned by the Alaska Dis-
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Alaska Dis-
trict of the Corps of Engineers to estimate transit
trict (USAED), was named as the lead agency to
time and cost of potential marine shipments via
conduct the reconnaissance study. USAED as-
the Russian Northern Sea Route (NSR). In this fi-
sembled a team from several agencies to bring vari-
nal report, we include a description of our assump-
ous backgrounds of expertise to the process. The
tions, the model's input parameters and its output
primary team members consisted of USAED, the
formats, a description of our sensitivity analyses,
U.S. Army's Cold Regions Research and Engineer-
and the results of our many simulations to arrive
ing Laboratory (CRREL), the University of Alaska
at meaningful transit times and costs.
Fairbanks (UAF), and Gulf Engineers & Consult-
ants, Inc. (GEC). These primary team members
Purpose of the reconnaissance study
were responsible for specific portions of the over-
A series of meetings between State officials in
all study and, in some cases, subcontracted for
Alaska and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers led
additional expertise from various other organiza-
to a formal request from the State to have the Corps
tions and marine consultants. The names, ad-
investigate the need for infrastructural improve-
dresses, and reporting responsibilities of the pri-
ments that would facilitate Alaskan shipping by
mary team members are listed in Table 1.
way of the Northern Sea Route. As the first step in
The overall NSR reconnaissance study was com-
evaluating need, Congress allocated 0,000 in
pleted in June 1995 and published in three vol-
FY94 and an equal amount in FY95 to fund a re-
umes (USAED 1995):
connaissance study. This was a preliminary study
Volume I:
to provide a general assessment of the route's po-
Main report and summary findings
tential benefit to the State of Alaska and the nation.
Appendix A: History and Present Status of Opera-
It will be referred to hereinafter as the NSR Recon-
tions
naissance Study. The study was to determine
Nathan D. Mulherin, U.S. Army Cold Regions
whether more detailed feasibility studies for spe-
Research and Engineering Laboratory
cific improvement projects were warranted. In the
Volume II:
way of definition, a reconnaissance study provides a
Appendix B: Climatology of Environmental Con-
preliminary identification of promising projects, if
ditions Affecting Commercial
they exist. A follow-on feasibility study is then done
Navigation Along the Northern Sea Route
to calculate the actual costs and benefits of poten-
Andrey Proshutinsky, Tatiana Proshutinsky,
tial Corps improvement projects. Projects such as
and Tom Weingartner, University of Alaska
harbor construction or sea lane improvement, iden-
Fairbanks, Institute of Marine Science
Previous Page
