The model reads the probability of encounter-
The Corps estimates for these factors are con
ing different levels of ice pack pressure from the
census values for new cargo ships that operate in
ICEPRE**.DAT files (Table B.5) using subroutine
ice-free waters. U.S. flag ships are distinguished
GETDAT. Ice pressure falls into one of four cat-
from foreign-flag ships. Ships are classified as non-
egories: none, low, medium, and high. Ice pres-
double-hull tankers, double-hull tankers, bulk car-
sure is updated at each data point from the MAIN
riers, container ships, and general cargo vessels.
program at 8-hr intervals using the MC algorithm.
Other representative ship characteristics presented
with each set of the above factors include: dead-
weight tonnage, container capacity, length, beam,
Input variables: Costs
In this section we discuss the rationale used to
loaded draft, horsepower, and fuel consumption
formulate the cost factors used in the model. The
rates of main and auxiliary power plants at sea
model allows the input of shipping costs in three
and in port.
separate categories: 1) cargo ship operating and
Current regulations (ANSR 1991) require that
ownership costs, 2) Russian icebreaker fees, and 3)
ships using the NSR have ice-strengthed hulls and
miscellaneous passage fees. The cargo ship costs
other features so as to be classified by the Russian
and icebreaker escort fees are both applied as daily
Registry* as L1, UL, or ULA. We selected three
rates in the model. In the case of ship costs, the
vessel classes from the Inventory of Icebreaking Ships
model calculates the total number of hours re-
for Navigation on the Northern Sea Route (L. Tunik
quired for transit, divides that number by 24, and
1994) to represent the more modern of the Rus-
multiplies by the daily rate. Icebreaker fees are
sian fleet now in service for dry bulk, liquid bulk,
applied only as complete days of service. That is,
container, and general cargo deliveries via the
an odd number of escort hours is rounded up to
NSR.
the next whole day. The miscellaneous passage
We chose categories from the Corps estimates
fees, on the other hand, are applied as a fixed cost
to match the length, power, and cargo service of
regardless of how long the transit takes. Each cost
each of the three NSR vessel classes. We adjusted
component is further described below.
the USACE ownership and operating costs to ac-
The vessel rates and the fixed passage fee are
count for the different design and the different
read from file COST.DAT (Table B.3) using sub-
service of NSR ships, as tabulated below. The age
routine GETSHIPDAT.
of the existing fleet of container ships and dry bulk
carriers was taken into account by assuming a re-
Cargo ship operating and ownership costs
duced capital book value by the double-declining
Actual NSR ship ownership and operating costs
balance method of depreciation. This book value
could not be determined for application in this
was then recovered by the same assumptions of
study. Instead, we adjusted Corps of Engineers
the USACE (1995) estimates for the remaining life
estimates for average ship costs (USACE 1995) to
of the ships. This discount appears to be in keep-
reflect higher costs for owning and operating the
ing with recent quotes for NSR ship charters and
ice-strengthened cargo ships now available for
with the overall economic climate in Russia and
Arctic service. These estimates are based on em-
associated incentives for competitive ship charter
pirical long-term trends of the following cost fac-
rates in these early years of international trade via
tors for conventional cargo vessels of various ser-
the NSR. We estimated costs for a new class of
vice types and cargo capacities:
NSR tankers with characteristics equivalent to the
Ownership costs, considered as fixed annual
Uikku, a 16,500-dwt double-hulled tanker formerly
amounts at 1995 price levels:
of the Lunni class, which was refitted in 1993 with
Replacement costs (new vessels amortized
azimuth drives and other new mechanical equip-
in 20 years at 7.5%/yr interest)
ment.
Crew wages, benefits, and subsistence
Tables 6 through 8 show how ownership and
Stores and supplies
operating costs were calculated for each ship type.
Maintenance and repair
The vessels presently available will inevitably be
replaced with new ships. Designers will presum-
Other costs
ably apply the full benefit of modern commercial
Administration
ship design and ship building methods to these
Variable costs
Fuel at sea
Fuel in port
* See Appendix F for ice classification equivalencies.
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