Table 19. Tabular results from varying miscellaneous fees for Noril'sk
multipurpose cargo ship transits.
Total cost ($)
Misc. fees
Simple
Model
Difference*
Linear fit to
($/voyage)
prediction
results
(%)
model results
April transits
110,000
498,021
504,668
1.33
120,000
508,021
512,497
0.88
TC = 1.0177 (MF) + 391,317
r2 = 0.9966
137,000
525,021
528,850
0.73
150,000
538,021
545,195
1.33
(see Fig. 15a)
170,000
558,021
564,503
1.16
August transits
87,000
310,741
316,641
1.90
105,000
328,741
334,937
1.88
TC = 1.0258 (MF) + 227,843
r2 = 0.9977
116,000
339,741
347,945
2.41
130,000
353,741
362,374
2.44
(see Fig. 15b)
145,000
368,741
375,332
1.79
*See Table 17.
The icebreaker daily rate was set at zero and
interest. Each simulation was repeated five times.
was instead applied as a fixed miscellaneous fee.
These results were averaged and are summarized
That is, the miscellaneous fees ($/voyage) were:
in Table 20.
April &
August &
Transit time
June
October
Transit times for June and October were, as
expected, intermediate to those of April and Au-
Noril'sk-class
=
137,000
116,000
gust. On average, the three ships required 567
Lunni-class
=
156,000
120,000
hours for April transits, while June, October, and
Strekalovsky-class
=
163,000
125,000
August transits required 516, 488, and 338 hours,
respectively. There was no significant difference
One-hundred-voyage simulations were run for
between the transit times of the three vessel types
all three vessels for each of the four months of
Table 20. Final results of Monte Carlo time and cost simulations. Mean values and standard
deviations are shown for five repetitions each of 100-voyage transits.
Elapsed
Mean
Escort
Total
time
Std.
speed
Std.
time
Std.
cost
Std.
Lunni (as ULA)
(hr)
dev.
(kn)
dev.
(hr)
dev
($)
dev.
Total cost ($)*
April
Noril'sk
566.11
38.61
5.55
0.30
518.96
38.97
528,850
27,030
Lunni
565.53
39.58
5.57
0.28
518.02
42.23
559,439
27,897
518,439
Strekalovsky
568.18
38.23
5.54
0.29
519.75
41.23
409,677
16,509
June
Noril'sk
511.99
28.83
6.64
0.37
174.47
56.93
495,939
19,797
Lunni
520.52
27.57
6.53
0.33
170.60
50.88
528,137
19,604
487,137
Strekalovsky
515.04
28.30
6.61
0.35
175.09
50.91
387,012
12,608
August
Noril'sk
326.43
30.59
9.69
0.89
77.02
38.71
347,945
21,280
Lunni
344.54
26.80
9.13
0.68
77.01
40.10
369,642
19,345
346,742
Strekalovsky
341.68
27.39
9.20
0.73
76.35
39.91
275,470
11,905
October
Noril'sk
484.23
40.66
6.61
0.52
122.69
42.56
457,009
28,050
Lunni
492.52
37.93
6.48
0.46
125.64
42.09
473,416
26,737
450,516
Strekalovsky
486.47
36.27
6.55
0.45
125.38
42.09
337,507
15,745
* Total cost if ULA-class icebreaker fees are used for the Lunni vessel, as instructed by Ramsland (see 2nd footnote, p. 15).
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