Table 16. Sensitivity study of transit directionality. Means and standard deviations shown for simula-
tions of 100 voyages each.
Cost variables:
Daily ship costs: Noril'sk = 25
Daily escort fee =
||content||
Lunni = ,500
Fixed tariff
= 0,000
Strekalovsky = ,250
Mean
Mean
Mean
Mean
Mean
Mean
elapsed time
speed
IB escort
total cost
cost/hr
cost/mi
Ship type
(hr)
Std. dev.
(kn)
Std. dev.
(hr)
Std. dev.
($)
Std. dev.
($) Std. dev. ($) Std. dev.
April
West-to-east
Noril'sk
567
40.8
5.53
0.29
516
44.3
516,070
29,856
911.7
16.72
165.1
7.39
Lunni
570
36.2
5.54
0.30
524
39.5
427,375
20,250
750.2
14.54
135.8
6.18
Strekalovsky
566
40.0
5.50
0.26
513
41.9
371,472
19,298
656.7
13.62
119.6
4.87
April
East-to-west
Noril'sk
565
45.6
5.68
0.36
498
43.1
515,380
32,219
913.7
20.16
161.3
8.10
Lunni
568
47.5
5.61
0.35
495
44.0
426,565
27,318
751.8
16.78
134.3
6.50
Strekalovsky
561
45.4
5.67
0.38
495
45.5
368,312
21,296
657.6
16.79
116.4
6.03
Percentage directional difference:
[(West/east) 1) *100]
0
11.0
3.0
19.0
4
3.0
0
7
0.0
17.0
2.0 9.0
0
24.0
1.0
14.0
6
10.0
0
26
0.0
13.0
1.0 5.0
1
12.0
3.0
32.0
4
8
1
9
0.0
19.0
3.0 19.0
August
West-to-east
Noril'sk
329
26.7
9.59
0.80
75
42.3
345,468
19,897
1052.0
31.65
110.2
6.81
Lunni
345
27.6
9.17
0.67
73
40.0
301,015
16,494
875.1
26.14
95.8
5.12
Strekalovsky
341
26.0
9.24
0.71
78
42.0
265,375
12,437
780.1
26.52
84.7
4.38
August
East-to-west
Noril'sk
327
30.7
9.83
0.90
67
34.4
344,950
22,337
1056.2
37.07
108.0
6.46
Lunni
351
26.9
9.12
0.65
69
39.0
303,850
15,170
867.4
25.74
95.5
4.95
Strekalovsky
341
27.3
9.43
0.78
66
43.4
265,038
12,798
780.2
27.75
83.1
4.58
Percentage directional difference:
1
13.0
2.0
11.0
12
23.0
0
11
0.0
15.0
2.0
5.0
2
3.0
1.0
3.0
6
3.0
1
9
1.0
2.0
0.0
3.0
0
5.0
2.0
9.0
19
3.0
0
3
0.0
4.0
2.0
4.0
TC = (CSR TT) + (IBR ET) + MF
cost between eastward and westward transits.
(5)
We will therefore only present the results for
Murmansk-to-Bering Strait transits.
where TT = total transit time (days)
ET = escort time (rounded up to the next
Shipping costs
full day)
The model calculates total cost of transit using
three factors that can be modified by the user. These
Once the average times of transit and escort
are cargo ship rates (CSR) in US$/day, icebreaker
have been calculated by the model, we can then
rates (IBR) in US$/day, and miscellaneous fees
use eq 2 to obtain quick total cost estimates for
(MF) in US$/voyage. In the case of CSR and IBR,
various scenarios. These results will not exactly
the program logic calculates the total time of tran-
match MC-modeled output, since rerunning the
sit and the time that icebreaker escort was required
model each time produces an average cost of mul-
and multiplies these by their respective rates. The
tiple-voyage transits. However, they are apparently
MF is a fixed amount that is added at the end of
accurate to within about 3% of modeled costs, as
the voyage regardless of transit time. The total cost
we shall demonstrate. To measure the model's sen-
(TC) in US$ of any single voyage can thus be writ-
sitivity to each of the cost factors, we performed
ten as
tests in which each was varied in systematic fash-
37
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