in any season. The times ranged only from 566 to
bulk carrier yielded the most economical transits,
568 hours for the most difficult month (April) to
while the Lunni-type liquid bulk carrier was the
between 326 and 345 hours for the easiest month
least economical. Even though the miscellaneous
(August). The data show that time differences dur-
voyage fee was highest for the dry bulk ship, it
ing the intermediate months of June and October
was offset by its very low daily ship rate relative
were similarly insignificant, with less than 9 hours'
to the other ship types. Transits by the Strekalovsky
difference in the mean times between the fastest
ranged from about 5,500 in August to 9,700
ship and the slowest.
in April and averaged 2,000 for all seasons. The
It seems apparent from the similarity in transit
Lunni's seasonal costs ranged between 0,000 in
times that our ship in-ice performance inputs need
August and 9,000 in April and averaged
better definition. This fact is further amplified by
3,000. For the Noril'sk, the range was 8,000
the similarity in the hours that each ship type re-
to 9,000, and the mean for all seasons was
quired icebreaker escort. As was stated earlier, our
7,000.
model was fine-tuned using historical data of
If the Lunni-type liquid bulk carrier is assumed
Noril'sk transits in August. Although we had no
to be ULA-class, as instructed by Ramsland* its
historical data for the other ship types, we believe
total voyage costs are reduced, as shown in the
that the ULA-class multipurpose vessel should
last column of Table 20. For each of April and June,
have a significantly faster transit time and need
total cost fell by ,900 and became 8,000 and
less icebreaker support time than the UL-class
7,000, respectively. Total costs for August and
tanker and dry bulker, due to its greater in-ice ca-
October each fell by ,000, becoming 7,000
pabilities. We also believe that the time difference
and 1,000, respectively. These reductions, rang-
should be most apparent during the intermediate
ing from 5 to 8%, were significant enough in all
months of June and October, when ice conditions
seasons to virtually eliminate the cost difference
would most likely border between the ULA capa-
between the Lunni- and the Noril'sk-type vessels.
bilities and those of the UL-class ships. During the
The LBC's mean total cost for all seasons was
summer season, most of the route is open water
1,000 when considered as a ULA-class vessel.
and weak ice so that neither ship type should be
Based on the above discussion concerning tran-
seriously impeded. On average, icebreaker sup-
sit time, the costs for dry and liquid bulk ship-
port was needed for only four days of the approxi-
ments over the Northern Sea Route are most likely
mately 14-day voyage. During the winter period,
conservative. Since we believe that our transit times
both ship types are maximally impeded by thick,
for those ship types are optimistic, slower speeds
concentrated ice under great pressure, and ice-
would translate to longer transit times and, hence,
breaker escort was needed for about 22 days of the
greater cost. Without additional shipping infor-
24-day voyage.
mation from those who have conducted such tran-
We did not have adequate data to establish a
sits, it is impossible for us to speculate further about
greater distinction between the various ships'
how costs may vary from these results.
speeds for the range of conditions encountered.
Since some published data was available, our great-
Trials using hypothetically
est confidence is in the Noril'sk transit times, and
larger cargo ships
we caution that those for the liquid and dry bulk
After analyzing the above results, the Alaska
carriers may be optimistic.
District (USAED) requested further simulations
that would illustrate the effect that cargo ship ca-
Transit cost
pacity has on total voyage cost. We were asked to
As expected, and similar to transit time, the costs
for transits in June and October were intermediate
having twice the cargo-carrying capacity of today's
to those for the extreme months of April and Au-
ships. The ships in current use on the NSR have
gust. The highest transit costs occurred in April,
approximately 25% of the carrying capacity of
during which the average for all three ships was
cargo vessels using the traditional warm-water
about 9,000. August costs averaged approxi-
trade routes. This means that it requires at least
mately 1,000, while June and October's were
four trips along the NSR to deliver the same
0,000 and 3,000, respectively.
Unlike transit time, there was a significant dif-
* T. Ramsland of Norway's Foundation for Research in
ference between ship types regarding the total cost
Economics and Business Administration states that the
of transit. In all seasons, the Strekalovsky-type dry
Lumni should be considered ULA-class.
43