August ranged from around 6,000 for a
speeds are reasonable for the conditions expected,
Strekalovsky-type dry cargo vessel to about 0,000
but they could obviously be improved with input
for a Lunni-type tanker.
from experienced NSR captains and ice pilots. Most
For our simulated April transits, voyages aver-
importantly, our model is easily modified to take
aged 23.6 days, with a standard deviation of 1.6
advantage of new information when and if it be-
days. This is the period when navigation condi-
comes available.
tions are most difficult, and an icebreaker escort
was required approximately 90% of the time. Mean
vessel speed for April was only 5.55 kn. The total
LITERATURE CITED
cost for a transit in April ranged from around
0,000 for the Strekalovsky-type vessel to about
ANSR (1991) Regulations for Navigation on the Sea-
9,000 for the Lunni-type vessel. This same as-
ways of the Northern Sea Route (A.P. Suchorukov,
cending order of cost was realized for transits in
Ed.). Moscow: Administration for the Northern
June and October. The milder environmental con-
Sea Route.
ditions in October produced shipping costs for the
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (1970) The
three ship types ranging from 8,000 to 3,000.
Soviet Arctic (in Russian). Moscow: Nauka.
The corresponding range in June costs were
Arikaynen, A.I., and K.N. Chubakov (1987) The
7,000 to 8,000.
ABCs of Ice Navigation. Moscow: Transport Pub-
The ships in current use on the NSR have ap-
lishing House. Translated by the Naval Intelligence
proximately 25% of the carrying capacity of cargo
Support Center, Washington, D.C., NISC Trans.
vessels using the traditional warm-water trade
No. 8609 (distribution limited).
routes. This means that it requires at least four
Brigham, L.W . (1995) Arctic rendezvous. U.S. Na-
trips along the NSR to deliver the same amount of
val Institute Proceedings, January 1995, p. 82.
cargo that can be delivered in one trip through the
Brower, W .A., Jr., R.G. Baldwin, C.N. Williams,
Suez Canal, for example. The distance advantage
Jr., J.L. Wise and L.D. Leslie (1988) Climatic Atlas
enjoyed by the NSR is thus eliminated if larger
of the Outer Continental Shelf Waters and Coastal
ships cannot be used. Additional transit simula-
Regions of Alaska, Vol. III, Chukchi-Beaufort Sea. Na-
tions were made of hypothetical ships that have
tional Climate Data Center, National Environmen-
twice the capacity of today's NSR vessels to assess
tal Satellite Data and Information Service, National
this future possibility. These results, when spread
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and
over full origin-to-destination transits between
Arctic Environmental Information and Data Cen-
northern Europe and the Far East, did look prom-
ter. Anchorage: University of Alaska.
ising, with more economical per-ton transporta-
Buzuev, A. Ya. (1977) Some results of studying of
tion rates than can be realized with today's ships.
ice cover affecting the movement of a ship (in
The reader is advised that further information con-
Russian). Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki, 50: 7679.
cerning the model's application to international
Buzuyev, A. Ya., and P. A. Gordienko (1976) Quan-
economics can be found in the full NSR reconnais-
titative evaluation of the difficulty of marine navi-
sance report (USAED 1995).
gation in ice. Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 9: 6066.
We believe that our ice, sea, and atmospheric
Davies, J. (1994). Charter company sets course for
data are adequate to simulate the important envi-
route north of Russia. Journal of Commerce, New
ronmental conditions that affect navigation. Weak-
York, February 24, p. 8B.
nesses in the current version involve cargo ship
Doronin, Yu. P., and D. E. Kheisin (1977) Sea Ice.
charter rates and the speeds that both icebreakers
Translated from Russian. New Delhi: Amerind
and cargo ships might maintain under various
Publishing Co. Pvt. Ltd.
combinations of environmental conditions. Our
Gill, A.E. (1982) AtmosphereOcean Dynamics. In-
analysis uses estimates of ownership and operat-
ternational Geophysics Series, vol. 30. New York:
ing costs for warm-water vessels of similar dimen-
Academic Press.
sions and powerplant size, modified for in-ice op-
Gloersen, P., W .J. Campbell, D.J. Cavalieri, J.C.
erations and depreciated to allow for the current
Comiso, C.L. Parkinson and H.J. Zwally (1992)
age and surplus availability. Actual shipping costs
Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice, 19781987: Satellite
from NSR officials and shipping operators would
passive-microwave observations and analysis. Wash-
be more desirable, but they were not available at
ington, D.C.: National Oceanic and Atmospheric
this time. We believe that our estimated vessel
Administration.
48
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