PURPOSERELATED DOCUMENTSMETHODS - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120010Fig. 6.1. Map of routes to be supported by the MDSS prototype during the winter of 2003-2004 Iowa field demonstrationTable 6.1. Iowa Maintenance Routes for the MDSS Field DemonstrationMDSS SYSTEM CONFIGURATIONSupplemental Numerical Weather Prediction ModelsMDSS Prototype Optimization PeriodDATA COLLECTION PROCESSSupplemental Data CollectionData Sources: Weather ObservationsVerification Data FormsRoad Condition and Treatment Module (RCTM)Road Weather Forecast System (RWFS)MDSS Display ApplicationSELECTED CASE STUDIESFig. 10.1. Photo of the weather sensor suite at the Iowa DOT maintenance garage in Ames, IowaCase Studies - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120025Fig. 10.2. Surface fax maps showing the progression of the synoptic setupFig. 10.3. Radar images showing the progression of the precipitationFig. 10.4. Air Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames METAR and Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecastsFig. 10.5. Same as Fig. 10.4, except for wind speed (m/s)Fig. 10.6. Same as Fig. 10.4, except for visibility (mi)Fig. 10.7. Same as Fig. 10.4 except for probability of precipitation (%) and quantitative precipitation forecast (mm/hr)Fig. 10.8. Same as Fig. 10.4 except the 18 UTC 16 January 2004 run and for probability of precipitation (%) and quantitative precipitation forecastFig. 10.9. Road Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecasts Fig. 10.10. Cloud cover time-series plot comparing the Ames METAR only to the RWFS forecastsFig. 10.11. RMSE plots for all sites across Iowa (top four panels) and for Ames onlyFig. 10.12. Same as Fig. 10.11, except bias plotsLight Snow Case 26 January 2004Light Snow Case 26 January 2004-continueFig. 10.14. Surface maps showing the progression of the synoptic setupFig. 10.15. Air Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames METAR and Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecasts Fig. 10.16. Same as Fig. 10.15, except for dew point temperature (C)Fig. 10.17. Same as Fig. 10.15, except for wind speed (m/s)Fig. 10.18. Radar images showing the progression of the snowfallFig. 10.19. Same as Fig. 10.15 except for probability of precipitation (%) and quantitative precipitation forecastFig. 10.20. Same as Fig. 10.15 except for probability of precipitation (%) and quantitative precipitation forecast (mm/hr) for the 18 UTC 26 January RWFS runLEDWI data Fig. 10.21. Estimated snow accumulation (inches) from the LEDWI sensorFig. 10.22. Same as Fig. 10.15 except for snow depth (inches)Fig. 10.23. Road Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecasts Cumulative verification results-continueFig. 10.24. Same as Fig. 10.11, except Hr 0 = 18 UTC 25 January 2004Fig. 10.25. Same as Fig. 10.12, except Hr 0 = 18 UTC 25 January 2004Blowing Snow Case 9-11 February 2004Fig. 10.26. Surface fax maps showing the progression of the synoptic setupFig. 10.27. Radar images showing the progression of the precipitationFig. 10.28. Air Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames METAR and Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecasts Fig. 10.29. Cloud cover time-series plot comparing the Ames METAR only to the RWFS forecastsFig. 10.30. Same as Fig. 10.28 except for probability of precipitation (%) and quantitative precipitation forecastFig. 10.31. Estimated snow accumulation (inches) from the LEDWI sensor located at the METAR siteFig. 10.32. Same as Fig. 10.28, but for 06 UTC, 11 Feb 2004 RWFS runThe blowing snow algorithmFig. 10.34. Same as Fig. 10.11, except Hr 0 = 18 UTC 9 February, 2004Fig. 10.35. Same as Fig. 10.12, except Hr 0 = 18 UTC 9 February, 2004.Mixed Precipitation Case 20 February 2004Figs. 10.36. Surface fax maps showing the progression of the synoptic setupFigs. 10.37. Radar images showing the progression of the precipitationFig. 10.38. Air Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames METAR and Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecastsFig. 10.39. Same as Fig. 10.38, except for dew point temperature (C)Fig. 10.40. Cloud cover time-series plot comparing the Ames METAR only to the RWFS forecasts Fig. 10.42. Same as Fig. 10.38, except for visibility (mi)Fig. 10.43. Same as Fig. 10.38 except for probability of precipitation (%) and quantitative precipitation forecast (mm/hr)Fig. 10.44. Same as Fig. 10.43 except the 06 UTC 20 February runFig. 10.45. Precipitation type comparison between the Ames METAR observations and the RWFS forecasts of type both with and without FSLFig. 10.46. Liquid precipitation (inches) from the tipping bucket gauge located at the METAR siteFig. 10.47. Snow depth (inches) time-series comparison of the Ames METAR observations versus the RWFS forecast for both the METAR and RWIS sitesFig. 10.48. Road Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecastsFig. 10.49. Same as Fig. 10.11, except Hr 0 = 00 UTC 20 February 2004Fig. 10.50. Same as Fig. 10.12, except Hr 0 = 00 UTC 20 February 2004 Heavy Snow Case 15 March 2004Fig. 10.51. Surface fax maps showing the progression of the synoptic setupFig. 10.52. Radar images showing the progression of the snowfallFig. 10.53. Air Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames METAR and Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecastsFig. 10.54. Same as Fig. 10.53, except for dew point temperature (C)Fig. 10.55. Same as Fig. 10.53, except for visibility (mi)Fig. 10.57. Cloud cover time-series plot comparing the Ames METAR only to the RWFS forecastsThe QPF forecasts -continueFig. 10.58. Same as Fig. 10.45 except for probability of precipitation (%) nd quantitative precipitation forecast (mm/hr)Fig. 10.59. Estimated snow accumulation (inches) from the LEDWI sensor on the left axisFig. 10.60. Same as Fig. 10.45 except for snow depth (inches)Fig. 10.61. Road Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecastsFig. 10.62. Same as Fig. 10.11, except Hr 0 = 06 UTC 15 March 2004Fig. 10.63. Same as Fig. 10.11, except Hr 0 = 06 UTC 15 March 2004OVERALL PERFORMANCE RESULTSOverall Performance AssessmentFig. 11.1. Seasonal analysis of RMSE for six meteorological parametersResults and Recommendations - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120096Fig. 11.2. Same as Fig. 11.1, except for biasFig. 11.3. Same as Fig. 11.1, except for forecast initialization timesQuantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)InsolationEta ModelResults and Recommendations - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120102Fig. 11.4. Comparison between MM5, Eta, WRF, and RWFS output (12Z model runs) of short wave radiation and pyranometer dataFig. 11.5. Comparison between RWFS output (12 Z model runs) of short wave radiation and pyranometer dataConditional Probability of Precipitation TypeConditional Probability of Precipitation Type-continueFig. 11.7. Conditional probabilities of rain, snow and ice predicted for all cases Road Temperature PredictionsFig. 11.8. Seasonal analysis of RMSE for road temperature, broken down by monthFig 11.10. Same as Fig. 11.8, except for road temperatureFig. 11.11. Seasonal analysis of RMSE versus MAE for road temperatureFig. 11.12. Seasonal analysis of RMSE for road temperature less than 40F Fig. 11.13. Seasonal analysis of bias for road temperatures less than 40F Fig. 11.14. Season analysis of RMSE for road temperature forecasts for all sky conditionsResults and Recommendations - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120115Treatment RecommendationsFig. 11.17. Legend keys for RCTM verification variablesVerification report for March 15-16, 2004 stormFig. 11.19. March 15-16 forecast timeline with freeze-point adjustmentActual conditions and operations - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120120Variability of the treatment recommendations with time - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120121Verification report for January 25-26, 2004-continueActual conditions and operations - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120123Fig. 11.23. Forecasted and actual precipitation, road temperatures and treatment recommendations for I35N (Ames) Variability of the treatment recommendations with time - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120125Verification report for January 16-17 cold rain eventFig. 11.26. Forecasted precipitation, road temperatures and recommended treatments along with actual treatments for I35N Ames routeOverall treatment verification summary and conclusionsMesoscale Modeling System ReliabilityMesoscale Model PerformanceFig. 11.29. Example plot of model output, showing the ensemble model domainShelter-level (2m) temperature and dewpointTower-level (10m) winds-continueFig. 11.30. Twelve-hour wind speed forecast errors from the MDSS ensemble models and the NWS Eta model. Bias (above) and RMS (below)Fig. 11.31. Time series of temperature forecast errors from the 06 UTC (1 AM CST) model runs and verifying observationsResults and Recommendations - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120136Fig 11.32a. 3-h precipitation forecast verificationFig 11.32b. 6-h precipitation forecast verificationANALYSIS OF ROAD TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONFig. 12.1. Infrared images of a roadway temperature sensorIowa MDSS Demonstration BackgroundAnalysis ApproachResults - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120143Results-continueFig. 12.3. Infrared imagery for 03/17/2004 on I-35N near the Ames DOT garageFig. 12.4. SNTHERM-RT predicted road surface temperature using the average solar fluxFig. 12.5. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for SNTHERM-RT road surface temperature predictionsFig. 12.6. SNTHERM-RT predicted road surface temperature using the average solar fluxFig. 12.7. SNTHERM-RT predicted bridge surface temperature using the instantaneous solar fluxTable 12.3. RMSE (degree centigrade) for the reanalysis of the Iowa MDSS bridge surface temperaturesCHEMICAL CONCENTRATION SAMPLINGTable 13.4. Results of chemical concentration samplingDISPLAY SOFTWAREFig. 14.1. MDSS summary display, indicating colored dots and values for temperatureUser SurveyUser Survey-continueIOWA DOT USER FEEDBACKPaul Durham - Garage Supervisor, Ames, IADOT (Feb 25, 2004)Gary McDaniel - Garage Assistant, Des Moines North, IADOT (Feb 16 2004)Rich Hedlund - Garage Supervisor, Des Moines West, IADOT (Feb 25, 2004)LESSONS LEARNED OR CONFIRMEDRoad Condition & Treatment Module RCTM)GeneralSUMMARY - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120164SUMMARY-continue - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120165SUMMARY-continue - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120166Appendix A: Technical Points of ContactAppendix A: Technical Points of Contact-continueThe primary points of contact for the Iowa DOT staff that participated in the 2004 winter field demonstrationThe primary points of contact for the CTRE staff that participated in the 2004 winter field demonstrationAppendix B: MDSS Field Demonstration Event SummaryAppendix B: MDSS Field Demonstration Event Summary-continue - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120172Appendix B: MDSS Field Demonstration Event Summary-continue - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120173Appendix B: MDSS Field Demonstration Event Summary-continue - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120174Appendix B: MDSS Field Demonstration Event Summary-continue - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120175Appendix B: MDSS Field Demonstration Event Summary-continue - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120176Appendix B: MDSS Field Demonstration Event Summary-continue - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120177Appendix C: Ames Garage Weather Sensor SuiteMDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_2912