Fig. 11.31. Time series of temperature forecast errors from the 06 UTC (1 AM CST) model runs and verifying observations

Fig. 11.30. Twelve-hour wind speed forecast errors from the MDSS ensemble models and the NWS Eta model. Bias (above) and RMS (below)

Results and Recommendations - MDSS_Tech_Perf_Report_29120136

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Another analysis of the temperature forecast errors was performed to illustrate the

models' performance for the critical task of properly forecasting the diurnal temperature

wave. In Fig 11.31, a time series was constructed from all the forecast models initialized

at 06 UTC, or 1 AM CST. The red line is the corresponding observations. Note that the

amplitude of the WRF wave is smaller than reality, resulting in a warm bias at night and a

cool bias during the day. The MM5 model is remarkably close to reality until sunrise,

and then a significant warm bias during the daytime hours becomes evident.

Fig. 11.31. Time series of temperature forecast errors from the 06 UTC (1 AM CST)

model runs and verifying observations.

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