primary snow event's end time occurred more than 15 hours beyond the initialization
time, the FSL models were not a factor in its determination. The end time at the METAR
and RWIS sites were forecast to be about the same time compared to the actual end time
reported at the METAR site. For the second, smaller event, both the start time and end
time forecast were predicted quite well, especially considering a lead time of more than
40 hours. This was an impressive aspect of this particular RWFS run. The NWS forecast
was not as good on the timing of this heavy snow event as the RWFS. The forecast at
400 AM CST on 15 March (9 UTC) was a follows:
.TODAY...COLDER. SNOW LIKELY THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGH IN THE MID 30S. EAST WIND
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. LOW IN
THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S.
WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
The snow ended early on Tuesday, 16 March but according to the forecast there was
another chance of rain and snow in the afternoon that day. The NWS did have a 30
percent chance of snow in the forecast for the second, short-lived snow event that
occurred on Tuesday night. Overall the RWFS forecast for this event was much more
accurate and precise than the NWS forecast.
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