Fig. 10.4. Air Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames METAR and Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecasts

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precipitation end time predictions. The air temperature forecasts are fairly close to the

observed air temperature for much of the time series, but tended to be warm by 1-2C

(Fig. 10.4). Because actual air temperatures were just above 0C during the time of the

rain event, the slightly warm forecasts could have resulted in a mis-forecast of the

precipitation type. This did not end up being the case, however.

Air Temperature Comparison for Jan 16, 2004

AMW OB

-5

-10

AMW METAR OB

AMW METAR wFSL

-15

AMW METAR woFSL

AMW RWIS OB

AMW RWIS wFSL

AMW RWIS woFSL

-20

12 14 16 18 20 22 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Jan 17, 2004 Time (UTC)

Jan 18, 2004

Fig. 10.4. Air Temperature (C) time-series plot comparing the Ames

METAR and Ames RWIS observations to the RWFS forecasts (both with

and without the FSL supplemental models) for the METAR and RWIS site.

The vertical lines represent the time period that the Ames METAR was

reporting falling precipitation.