Sea Route may not be desirable for use where larger
upon for these emergency services. Only the port
ships can move cargo more efficiently. More north-
of Igarka is now open as a stopover for foreign
erly route options would enable larger and per-
ships. Other ports slated to be opened are Dudinka,
haps more efficient ship passage but would also
Dikson, Tiksi, and Pevek. Another advantage to
require greater icebreaking capabilities than are
opening more ports would be the stimulation of
currently available. As recently as 1988, there was
spinoff support services that could bring additional
discussion that the Soviets were considering the
foreign revenue into the northern economy, from
construction of a new 150,000-shp icebreaker,
tourism and lodging facilities, for example
which was seen as a necessary step for expanding
(Brigham 1993).
NSR shipping through the winter (streng 1992).
The ability to respond to an environmental di-
Although those plans have been deemed prema-
saster at sea in this harsh and remote region is of
ture in light of current cargo volume, costs, and
concern to the northern populations of Russia as
revenue possibilities, we are left to wonder which
well as to the international community. The need
must first occur--improvements in icebreaking
for a coordination center and establishment of stan-
capacity that will allow more economical cargo
dard emergency procedures is widely acknowl-
transportation, or the development of markets for
edged (for example, Roginko 1993, Sandkvist 1993).
trade goods that will spur technological advance.
A funding source to achieve these goals is needed
It is likely that advances on both fronts must
but is not immediately apparent. Until more expe-
occur simultaneously to effect real progress. Im-
rience is gained and more facilities become estab-
port and export industries depend heavily on reli-
lished, NSR shipping will continue to be perceived
able, year-round transportation of goods. Few busi-
as riskier than the traditional canal routes.
nesses can afford the limitation of a seasonal supply
Other needed improvements to navigation are
of raw materials or seasonal distribution of their
finished products. Attracting year-round trade will
Better communication between ships and
encourage the establishment of alternative trans-
MOHQs (Mikhailichenko and Ushakov
portation modes for the off-season, such as over-
1993);
land rail or air freight service. These will intro-
Better ice-imaging tools (streng 1991);
duce another source of competitive pressure on
Modern hardware for positioning and com-
marine shipping that is perceived as negative.
munication;
According to Makinen (1993), average ship
Dredging of ports (Brigham 1993).
speeds along the Northern Sea Route need to be
increased from 613 to 1015 knots to make the
The hardware that allows for global communi-
route more competitive with the alternative canal
cations from virtually any Arctic location is al-
routes. Wergeland's economic analysis shows that
ready in place, although better coordination in the
the NSR advantage in transit time diminishes to
use of that hardware may be needed. The technol-
only two days by assuming an average transit
ogy to receive ice data from satellite-based sensors
speed of 12 knots vs. the 21-knot speed possible
that do not require clear sky or daylight would
on the canal routes. When other costs associated
enable the Russian experts to substantially improve
with the NSR are then considered (greater insur-
their forecasting and ship-routing capabilities.
ance and political risk, higher maintenance and
operating costs, smaller vessel capacity), the NSR
advantage disappears. It isn't likely that ship
CONCLUSIONS
speeds will be substantially increased in the near
future. The NSR's economic advantage in the near
Our study of the history and current conditions
term may perhaps only be realized by Russia of-
related to international use of the Northern Sea
fering attractive rates for chartering and services
Route brings us to the following general conclu-
to bring the overall cost down.
sions:
Use of the Northern Sea Route will also depend
The Northern Sea Route is a substantially
on wider availability of emergency services. Per-
sonal safety demands greater access to rescue and
shorter passage for shipping between north-
medical services, whereas equipment emergencies
ern European ports and those of the Far
might include ship repairs, refueling sites, and
East and Alaska than routes through the
pollution abatement response. At the present time,
Suez and Panama Canals. Comparisons
the MOHQs and icebreaker escorts must be relied
show a 35 to 60% savings in distance.
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