Form Approved
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE
OMB No. 0704-0188
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1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank)
2. REPORT DATE
3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED
December 1997
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
5. FUNDING NUMBERS
Projecting Ice-Affected Streamflow by Extended Kalman Filtering
6. AUTHORS
David J. Holtschlag, Charles T. Parker, and Mohinder S. Grewal
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
REPORT NUMBER
U.S. Geological Survey
Water Resources Division
6520 Mercantile Way, Suite 5
Lansing, Michigan 48911
9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)
10. SPONSORING/MONITORING
AGENCY REPORT NUMBER
U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory
72 Lyme Road
CRREL Report 97-8
Hanover, New Hampshire 03755-1290
11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Available from NTIS, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words)
An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time projection of ice-affected streamflow, based
on routine measurements of stage and air temperature and the relation between stage and flow during open-
water conditions. The form accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formationablation, sta-
ble ice conditions, and final elimination. The filter was applied to historical data from two long-term stream-
flow-gaging stations. They were stable and parameters converged for both stations, producing estimates that
were highly correlated with and linearly related to published streamflow values in a log-transformed metric. At
St. John River at Dickey, Maine, logarithms of projected streamflow values were within 8% of the logarithms of
published values 87.2% of the time and within 15% of published values 96.6% of the time during periods of ice
effects. At Platte River at North Bend, Nebraska, logarithms of projected streamflow values were within 8% of
the logarithms of published daily values 90.7% of the time and within 15%, 97.7% of the time during ice-affected
conditions. This extended Kalman filter allows estimation of ice-affected streamflow at other gaging stations by
adjusting filter parameters to site-specific conditions.
14. SUBJECT TERMS
15. NUMBER OF PAGES
46
Forecasting
Ice jams
Platte River
16. PRICE CODE
Ice effects
Kalman filter
St. John River
17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT
OF REPORT
OF THIS PAGE
OF ABSTRACT
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UL
Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89)
Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39-18
298-102